New study reveals relationship between aviation and economic growth

Recently, a new study was published that deserves far more attention in the tourism and aviation debate.

Conducted by the New Economics Foundation and Transport & Environment, led by Dr Felix Pot and Dr Alex Chapman, the study asks a simple but important question:

What is the actual relationship between air transport and economic growth in Europe?

It challenges one of the industry’s favourite narratives, that “more flights = more growth.” The data shows something far more complex, and in many places, the opposite.

Key findings

- Air transport and GDP are correlated, but causation goes in the opposite direction in most regions.
In 53% of European regions, it’s economic growth that drives flight demand.
Higher incomes means more outbound leisure travel. This creates private benefits, not broad economic development.

- Only 37% of regions see economic growth driven by increased air connectivity.
These are mainly in Eastern Europe and classic tourist-receiving regions.
These outliers are often used as political “proof” but they are not the norm.

- In Northern and Western Europe, the effect is barely visible.
Business air travel is in long-term decline. Most regions spend more on outbound travel than they earn from inbound tourism. And even in tourism hotspots, shorter stays, informal accommodation and overtourism erode the economic value per visitor.

- Domestic tourism and land-based transport can substitute for air travel without harming economic activity.
This is one of the most politically sensitive, and important, findings.

Also, note that:

This study does not yet include:

• climate impacts

• nature impacts

• distributional effects (who benefits vs. who pays)

These will come in Parts Two and Three.

Which means:
Even this already-critical picture is incomplete, the real costs of aviation are higher than reported here.

What this means for policy and for tourism

The industry tends to frame aviation as a core economic engine.
This study makes something very clear:

We overestimate aviation’s economic importance.
And in much of Europe, air travel does not drive economic growth, economic growth drives air travel.

That’s a fundamental difference.

So when claims about “growth” are used to justify airport expansion, resist taxation, or delay climate action, this evidence should be front and centre.

If we want a tourism sector that genuinely creates value, socially, economically, and environmentally, we have to start with honest data, not assumptions.

Transparency.travel will continue to follow this research as the next parts are released.